Since you correctly said in your recent post that each mutation had to occur in a separate spot And all of your mutation/dart/card/coin examples had each mutation/dart/ace/heads happening in different positions.
And you have admitted that the probability with each mutation/dart/ace/head happening in different positions is (#mutations)/(#spots) which is the answer I have been giving for your mutation/dart/card/coin examples.I'd appreciate it if you could admit i've been giving the correct answer for your examples and perhaps apologize for the various disparaging remarks you've made about me, my intelligence, education, and mathematical ability and acknowledge that I do in-fact know what I'm doing when dealing with probability.
First, I apologize for my remarks.You really have good skills about probability, But all the problem was that we were using different assumptions and I thought we were using the same.So, you seemed a very stupid person to me because I Thought you were calculating conditional probability in a different way.If mutation is counted in the way You said, then I was wrong.
Second, In the examples I used I was not assuming the assumption that each position could be target once.We were only using different assumptions.If my assumption that each position could receive more than one mutation was right then I would be right.
Third, despite of that If we assume that 120 mutations happening in the coding region will lead to error catastrophe and that only one mutation can happen per person in the coding region then the probability 1/3*10^9 would be more realistic.I dont think human being can tolerate more than 1 mutation per person in the coding region.
If we are calculating the probability of a protein evolve we must consider the probability of harmful mutations between the 120 mutations.If a lucky mutation happens in a point but 119 harmful mutations kill the person it could not be considered in my opinion.
But IÃ‚Â´ll use your number to do what I wanted since the beginning.
If we have 4 bases and the probability of a mutation happens in a position is 10^-8
then the probability of a mutation put a specific base in that position must be 1/3*10^8.
if we want to calculate the probability of a protein with 100 aminoacids evolving, we can do the following calculation :
We need 300 nucleic bases.200 bases from that number really code the protein.
p = 1/(3*10^8)^200.