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piasan

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piasan last won the day on May 25

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About piasan

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  1. Hey ! ! ! Last time I suggested a new topic, someone told me to "MYOB." Do you know who that might have been? How many subjects have we discussed under this single topic heading that have absolutely nothing to do with the OP? Here's one .... hydroxychloroquine. Trump's response to COVID-19 is another. I bet I can go back and find at least 10 good, extended topics we've had in the nearly 70 pages of this one. I just don't understand why a single topic that runs 70 pages is better than 7 topics of 10 pages each. Or even 14 topics of 5 pages each Speaking for myself only .... when I browse the net and happen on a new forum I will look to see what's being discussed. When there are a half dozen conversations on different topics going on, I'm a lot more likely to stick around ..... and maybe even join ...... than if everything is bundled into a single 70 page discussion. Comments ? ? ?
  2. It's a fair and reasonable point. I suggest Fred's topic at: https://evolutionfairytale.com/forum/index.php?/topic/6940-25-ways-the-shutdown-kills-conspiracy-list/
  3. You asked about enthusiasm before and I hadn't gotten back to it ... There are two kinds of enthusiasm .... pro-Biden and anti-Trump. Pro-Biden isn't near as strong as anti-Trump.... but either one will get people out to vote. In those "swing" states, neither Biden nor Trump has a "good" lead. We can expect most of the campaign will be concentrated in those 5 or 6 states though.
  4. Let's go back to your original statement that "the individual polling for each of the states just HAPPENED in nearly every instance to show the margin of error" The blue area is "average difference" not "margin of error." What they have done is show the number of polls; the average for Biden; the average for Trump; and the difference between them. What the table does NOT give is the margin of error. As for the "stealth Trump voter" effect.... the polls have figured that out pretty well. Besides, most Trump supporters are pretty vocal. Not so fast ..... All Silver says is that likely voters will lean more toward Trump.... not how much more. "538" shows Biden leading in each state but doesn't give poll specifics. 270towin does give specifics of up to 5 polls in the last 30 days at https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/ . Click on "all polls" to get the detail. Detail includes polls over 30 days that are not in the pie chart. For the states listed by "538" we have: North Carolina ... Biden leading 48-46 in 5 polls of registered voters (RV) between 5/1 and 5/20. Two polls of likely voters (LV) are Biden 48-45 on 4/29 and Trump 49-42 on 4/15. Wisconsin ... Biden 47-41 in 2 polls of RV on 5/12 and 5/21. There is one poll of LV on 4/13 with Biden 48-47. Florida .... Biden 49-46 in 3 polls of RV between 5/15 and 5/28. No LV polls available. Pennsylvania .... Biden 49-41 in 2 polls. One RV on 5/21 is 48-39 and an LV on 5/1 that's 49-43. There is another LV outside the 30 day window with Biden ahead 48-42 on 4/23 Michigan .... Biden 49-43 in 3 polls. There is a 49-46 on 5/21 in an LV and two RV 51-45 on 5/20 and 47-39 on 5/21. There is another LV with Biden ahead 50-41 on 4/13. While these are all close," I don't see a lot of evidence Trump has a lead.
  5. Who is making this a partisan issue? Tell us, why is Trump so interested in this specific case after nearly 20 years? It could be that the family is Republicans ..... Scarborough is. It could be that the family is satisfied they know the circumstances of her death and Trump bringing it up is causing them pain. Frankly, it's none of Trump's business. Her FAMILY has said this is causing them pain and has asked Trump to cease and desist. Their political party is IRRELEVANT. It's time for any DECENT human being to stop.
  6. Another update on hydroxychlorquine (HCQ) as a treatment for Covid-19 ..... From: https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexledsom/2020/05/27/france-bans-hydroxychloroquine-to-treat-covid-19/#d50482d21aba "The French government has banned the prescription of hydroxychloroquine to treat symptoms of Covid-19 due to serious concerns over health risks. ...." Looks more and more like a "go cautiously" approach was the right idea along .....
  7. Proves MY point that you can't believe polls like you SHOULDN'T have 4 years ago. If he doesn't win TX by MORE than 3 then the country's good is cooked. (This article was May 1.) ..... AND here was HIS commentary: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/weve-got-some-early-trump-vs-biden-swing-state-polling/ .... Most of the April surveys in these four states were conducted among registered voters or all adults, two groups that include some people who may not vote in November.4 What we have hear is a failure to communicate (from "Cool Hand Luke") ..... Look at the sequence of events ..... you had commented that Biden was getting beaten badly in swing states and no one was looking at it state-by-state (not shown above). The first listing above was me providing you with the three Fox links I had posted in April showing Biden leading Trump AND a link to 270towin.com where multiple state-by-state analyses are available. Included was the poll results from a number of states in the "swing state" range ..... within a +/-3% range of uncertainty. Then you commented on the Texas 1% difference from 270towin.com. Then you commented AGAIN on the 270towin data and addressed that with a "538" analysis of April polls with a May 1 date. Notice, at this point, you have TWICE referenced data from 270towin, not the Fox polls. So, AFTER you TWICE commented on the 270towin polls, those are the ones I was commenting on being from May ..... with half of them since May 20. (Correction .... I had earlier said 13 polls were within a +/- 3% margin of error (6% spread or less) .... one of those was the national poll at the top of the list. There were 12 state polls within 6%.) Then you switch from the 270towin polls you twice mentioned to the Fox polls you hadn't. I'm not too sure the mistake was mine ....... but we definitely have a "failure to communicate."
  8. The information in the table is NOT the margin of error. I understand statistics just fine, thank you. For example, in polls such as we're talking about the normal margin of error is +/-3% .... though I'm seeing a lot more 4% lately. That means 95% of the time, the actual result will be within 3% of the poll result. For example, if a poll shows Biden is ahead of Trump by 46-42 with a 3% margin of error.... if the poll is right, 95% of the time Biden will get between 43 and 49% and Trump will get between 39 and 45%. As long as Biden and Trump are within those ranges, the poll is considered to be accurate. Just as in any race, there is a leader at all times and that lead can change at any time .... regardless of any margin of error. Also, as in any race, the only time the lead counts is when you cross the finish line. We agree that polls of likely voters will probably be more accurate than those of the general public or registered voters. It says a lot if Biden is ahead of Trump without leaving his basement while Trump (until recently) has been doing daily broadcasts from the White House.
  9. There's a reason for that. For example, in NC, the average of 5 polls has Biden ahead 47% to 46% with an average of +1.0% In MI, 8 polls have an average to Biden ahead 49-43 with a an average gap of 6.1%. The biggest problem with this is that the oldest of the polls I mentioned is May 5 and half of them have been since May 20.
  10. I don't think Trump was in office 4 years ago ..... Actually, I posted three FOX NEWS polls right after they were released on April 22+23. They had Trump down 3 points in Florida, 8 points in Pennsylvania, and 8 points in Michigan. Here are the links: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-biden-and-trump-in-tight-race-in-florida https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-biden-leads-trump-in-battleground-pennsylvania https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-biden-tops-trump-in-michigan-where-gov-whitmer-is-more-popular-than-president Another source of state-by-state analysis is 270towin.com. They provide the analyses of multiple forecasters and multiple methods with the ability to "build your own" scenario. The website includes Senate and House races as well. A good place to start is: https://www.270towin.com/2020-election-forecast-predictions/ You can find their state polls at https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/ They show: Arizona, Biden ahead by 4 in an average of 3 polls North Carolina, Biden by 2 in 5 polls Florida, Biden by 4 in 2 polls Michigan, Biden by 6 in 3 polls Pennsylvania, Biden by 8 in 2 polls Wisconsin, Biden by 6 in 2 polls Texas, Trump by 1, 2 polls. Oh, just go to the page and sort by "competitiveness." There are 13 states with margins of 6% or less. The reason I chose 6% is a lot of polls are +/-3%.
  11. Correct. Thank you. 100,000 dead bodies in less than 3 months despite a major change in social habits and economic disruption suggests otherwise. Only after they get it and we don't know how much immunity nor for how long. There are cases of people who have been cured then tested positive again later. That's like looking at our situation in March and saying because we've only had 10 or so fatalities, it's a tiny percentage of the population and can be ignored because we're doing a great job. Well, it's less than 3 months later and tomorrow it'll cross 100,000 dead... and climbing at around 1,000 a day. We don't yet know what the toll from this pandemic will be. Based on previous pandemics, we're likely to have a second surge that will be worse than the first. I just checked .... we've had 1. But it's a rural county. These things grow fastest in crowded urban areas.
  12. The matter was brought up as an attempt to justify the behavior that led to your involvement, Mike. Dave's last paragraph makes that clear. The "actual person" declines to participate beyond this one comment ..... Each of us has our priorities and our reasons for them. That we choose one of those priorities is not proof, or even evidence, that we "don't CARE" about the others.
  13. We know what percentage of those tested die. We have no idea how many have been infected and never knew they had it. Without that information, we can't calculate an accurate fatality rate.
  14. The mortality rate may not be that high because I'm not sure we've tested enough people to have a good handle on it yet. Covid is also also far more contagious than the flu. As I understand it, Covid is expected to infect at least 60% of the population ..... that's 200 million people. A mortality rate of 0.26% would be 520,000 deaths. IMO, there are also some conservatives who will vote for Trump regardless of the number of fatalities or the state of the economy simply because they love him so much it doesn't matter what he does. I'm not sure if I'm sufficiently liberal to address this. According to PEW research at: https://www.people-press.org/quiz/political-typology/ , I'm pretty much in the middle. With 10 being "consistently liberal", 5 = middle-of-the-road, and 1 being "consistently conservative," I'm about a 6. Speaking for myself only .... It would make me very happy if this all ended tomorrow. For example HCQ being the "game-changer" you think it is. That would pretty much eliminate the fatalities. It would also allow us to IMMEDIATELY start SAFELY re-opening the economy and get back to business. IMHO, Trump has more than enough baggage without this. BTW, at "538" Trump's virus approval-disapproval rating of -10.9 (42.7-53.6) is almost identical with his overall rating of -10.6 (42.9-53.5).
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