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indydave

Audacious! "Show meet someone who believes in Noah's ark and..."

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18 minutes ago, piasan said:

Texas, Trump by 1, 2 polls.

Proves MY point that you can't believe polls like you SHOULDN'T have 4 years ago. If he doesn't win TX by MORE than 3 then the country's good is cooked.

I haven't checked in the past 2 weeks, but I hope you will agree that what I reported two weeks ago was true at the time. And my guess is I would find some issue with your reporting, if I wanted to take the time to look into it. You go right ahead and think you have a fine candidate and keep him on the ticket. PLEASE! I have two words for you. ENTHUSIASM GAP.

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On 5/25/2020 at 4:44 PM, piasan said:

I don't know, but Trump never hesitates to make serious allegations that are known to be false before he makes them.   if I were Scarborough, I think I'd sue Trump for an even $1 BILLION for defamation.  (I bet Trump couldn't pay it if he lost.)

BTW, as I understand it, the staffer was a marathon runner ..... they are known to sometimes die of sudden cardiac problems.

Doubling down.  This is the President of the United States.  Unbelievable.

 

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1 hour ago, piasan said:

Oh, just go to the page and sort by "competitiveness."  There are 13 states with margins of 6% or less.  The reason I chose 6% is a lot of polls are +/-3%.

I went to a very popular site especially among Democrats and I found that the individual polling for each of the states just HAPPENED in nearly every instance to show the margin of error (of something just above 1000 polled) to be exactly the same as Biden's "lead." (This article was May 1.)

IMG_20200527_005910_083.jpg.e94e643c95dab2d46451331f09dfd15f.jpg

 

AND here was HIS commentary:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/weve-got-some-early-trump-vs-biden-swing-state-polling/

Also, as The New York Times’ Nate Cohn wrote recently, Trump is likely to look stronger when pollsters start limiting their results to “likely voters.” Most of the April surveys in these four states were conducted among registered voters or all adults, two groups that include some people who may not vote in November.4

In other words, this data suggests Trump may have an Electoral College advantage again — he could lose the popular vote and win the election. 

###

PLUS this didn't include info from Iowa or Ohio...where Trump CRUSHED Hillary. AND THANKFULLY, Republican adults, registered voters and LIKELY VOTERS...are about the same. Democrats...not so much.

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35 minutes ago, StormanNorman said:

Doubling down.

...and NOT BACKING DOWN. LOVE IT.

Today all he said was that it is very suspicious and he believed the family would want to get to the bottom of it. If the family is Democrat, it is not surprising they want to try to bash Trump.

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10 minutes ago, indydave said:

I went to a very popular site especially among Democrats and I found that the individual polling for each of the states just HAPPENED in nearly every instance to show the margin of error (of something just above 1000 polled) to be exactly the same as Biden's "lead." 

IMG_20200527_005910_083.jpg.e94e643c95dab2d46451331f09dfd15f.jpg

.

There's a reason for that.   For example, in NC, the average of 5 polls has Biden ahead 47% to 46% with an average of +1.0%  In MI, 8 polls have an average to Biden ahead 49-43 with a an average gap of 6.1%.

16 minutes ago, indydave said:

AND here was HIS commentary:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/weve-got-some-early-trump-vs-biden-swing-state-polling/

Also, as The New York Times’ Nate Cohn wrote recently, Trump is likely to look stronger when pollsters start limiting their results to “likely voters.” Most of the April surveys in these four states were conducted among registered voters or all adults, two groups that include some people who may not vote in November.4

In other words, this data suggests Trump may have an Electoral College advantage again — he could lose the popular vote and win the election. 

###

PLUS this didn't include info from Iowa or Ohio...where Trump CRUSHED Hillary.

The biggest problem with this is that the oldest of the polls I mentioned is May 5 and half of them have been since May 20.

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5 minutes ago, piasan said:

There's a reason for that.   For example, in NC, the average of 5 polls has Biden ahead 47% to 46% with an average of +1.0%  In MI, 8 polls have an average to Biden ahead 49-43 with a an average gap of 6.1%.

??? THAT WAS MY POINT. if you understand statistics you know it is false to say there is a lead if it is within the margin of error! And as I showed, the expert Nate Silver said that the real significant measure is of LIKELY voters and Trump has the lead there in the battleground states, where it counts. And it's only going to get stronger as Biden crawls out of his basement. For now, his handlers have decided that the less people see of him the better his polling will be.

8 minutes ago, piasan said:

The biggest problem with this is that the oldest of the polls I mentioned is May 5 and half of them have been since May 20.

If I were to use the standard you have used in accusing me of plagiarism, I would say LIAR! (Because apparently you ACCIDENTALLY got your facts wrong. You should have KNOWN that was going to come back to bite you in the rear eventually...and it didn't take LONG.)

My citation was May 1. The polls in your Fox links were April 18-21.

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3 hours ago, piasan said:

100,000 dead bodies in less than 3 months despite a major change in social habits and economic disruption suggests otherwise.

 

i hardly call 0.03% of the US population "a killer virus".

like stormin norman mentioned though, how much of this can we attribute to the precautions we have taken.

i still believe that shutting down our economy is overkill.

if we, the people, keeps a close eye on this stuff and not gulp down everything we see and hear on TV, we can make some darned good judgement calls.

like i mentioned, our county has 5 deaths so far, the local area where i live has 3 of those and hardly anyone here practices any of the things mentioned (social distancing, masks, gloves, etc).

the local walmart is usually jammed with these people.

if this was so killer and contagious, why aren't these people dropping like flies?

face it piasan, this certainly isn't the deadly, dangerous, killer virus it's made out to be.

you can't claim "rural" as a mitigating factor because places like indianapolis and chicago would have death rates off the scale.

the highest rate of local surrounding counties is 6% of known cases

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51 minutes ago, piasan said:

There's a reason for that.   For example, in NC, the average of 5 polls has Biden ahead 47% to 46% with an average of +1.0%  In MI, 8 polls have an average to Biden ahead 49-43 with a an average gap of 6.1%.

37 minutes ago, indydave said:

??? THAT WAS MY POINT. if you understand statistics you know it is false to say there is a lead if it is within the margin of error!

 

The information in the table is NOT the margin of error.

I understand statistics just fine, thank you.  For example, in polls such as we're talking about the normal margin of error is +/-3% .... though I'm seeing a lot more 4% lately.  That means 95% of the time, the actual result will be within 3% of the poll result.   For example, if a poll shows Biden is ahead of Trump by 46-42 with a 3% margin of error.... if the poll is right, 95% of the time Biden will get between 43 and 49% and Trump will get between 39 and 45%.  As long as Biden and Trump are within those ranges, the poll is considered to be accurate.

Just as in any race, there is a leader at all times and that lead can change at any time .... regardless of any margin of error.  Also, as in any race, the only time the lead counts is when you cross the finish line.

 

38 minutes ago, indydave said:

And as I showed, the expert Nate Silver said that the real significant measure is of LIKELY voters and Trump has the lead there in the battleground states, where it counts. And it's only going to get stronger as Biden crawls out of his basement. For now, his handlers have decided that the less people see of him the better his polling will be.

We agree that polls of likely voters will probably be more accurate than those of the general public or registered voters.  It says a lot if Biden is ahead of Trump without leaving his basement while Trump (until recently) has been doing daily broadcasts from the White House.

 

 

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27 minutes ago, piasan said:

I understand statistics just fine, thank you.  For example, in polls such as we're talking about the normal margin of error is +/-3% .... though I'm seeing a lot more 4% lately.  That means 95% of the time, the actual result will be within 3% of the poll result.  

Thanks (not) for the lesson. Do you need you eyes checked? The blue area GIVES the ACTUAL margins and  the differences are within or with a fraction of a point of within the margins. AND this does not even account for the possible stealth Trump voter phenomenon, where they don't participate in polls or give false answers.

27 minutes ago, piasan said:

We agree that polls of likely voters will probably be more accurate than those of the general public or registered voters. 

That means then, you're in agreement WITH ME. At this time Trump seems to have the lead among likely voters in the key battleground States! YAY!

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15 hours ago, piasan said:

Security was pretty lax before 9-11.   One big thing was cockpit doors weren't locked.  After 9-11 they both required the doors be locked and strengthened them.

Flight crews had been trained to cooperate with hijackers because the pattern was that the plane and crew would be held for ransom usually to achieve some political goal.  It was much safer for everyone to simply cooperate.

If only you were as clear headed and rational when it comes to Evolutionism as you are debunking 911 conspiracy nonsense... 

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2 hours ago, StormanNorman said:

Doubling down.  This is the President of the United States.  Unbelievable.

 

Someone has to expose the truth.. no one else will..

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11 hours ago, piasan said:

One thing worth note..... almost all of the hijackers were Saudis.  The shooter at the Pensacola NAS was Saudi ..... yet Saudi Arabia is about the ONLY Arab nation Trump has never restricted travel from.

? ? ? ? ?

One thing worth note..... almost all of the hijackers were Saudis.  The shooter at the Pensacola NAS was Saudi ..... yet Saudi Arabia is about the ONLY Arab nation Trump has never restricted travel from.

? ? ? ? ?

Well that proves that Trump was part of the conspiracy on 911.. I mean what more evidence do you need?

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20 hours ago, what if said:

one very valid question would be "how did they gain access to the cockpit"?

airlines have dealt extensively with highjackings, you can take it to the bank that those highjackers just didn't turn the doorknob to get in.

if i'm not mistaken it's been over 40 years since a commercial airplane has been highjacked.

it just doesn't happen anymore.

but it did on 9-11, 4 times.

"one very valid question would be "how did they gain access to the cockpit"?

Perhaps the terrorists stabbed the flight attendants to get a cockpit key, to force one of them to open the cockpit door, or to lure the captain or first officer out of the cockpit." Once the hijackers gained control of American 11, they guided it toward New York's World Trade Center towers, where it stuck the North 

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3 hours ago, piasan said:

... I posted three FOX NEWS polls right after they were released on April 22+23.  They had Trump down 3 points in Florida, 8 points in Pennsylvania, and 8 points in Michigan.

Here are the links:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-biden-and-trump-in-tight-race-in-florida

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-biden-leads-trump-in-battleground-pennsylvania

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-biden-tops-trump-in-michigan-where-gov-whitmer-is-more-popular-than-president

Another source of state-by-state analysis is 270towin.com.  They provide the analyses of multiple forecasters and multiple methods with the ability to "build your own" scenario.  The website includes Senate and House races as well.   A good place to start is:  https://www.270towin.com/2020-election-forecast-predictions/

You can find their state polls at https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/

They show: 

  • Arizona, Biden ahead by 4 in an average of 3 polls
  • North Carolina, Biden by 2 in 5 polls
  • Florida, Biden by 4 in 2 polls
  • Michigan, Biden by 6 in 3 polls
  •  Pennsylvania, Biden by 8 in 2 polls
  •  Wisconsin, Biden by 6 in 2 polls
  •  Texas, Trump by 1, 2 polls.

Oh, just go to the page and sort by "competitiveness."  There are 13 states with margins of 6% or less.  The reason I chose 6% is a lot of polls are +/-3%.

3 hours ago, indydave said:
3 hours ago, piasan said:

Texas, Trump by 1, 2 polls.

Proves MY point that you can't believe polls like you SHOULDN'T have 4 years ago. If he doesn't win TX by MORE than 3 then the country's good is cooked.

 

2 hours ago, indydave said:
2 hours ago, piasan said:

Oh, just go to the page and sort by "competitiveness."  There are 13 states with margins of 6% or less.  The reason I chose 6% is a lot of polls are +/-3%.

(This article was May 1.) .....

AND here was HIS commentary:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/weve-got-some-early-trump-vs-biden-swing-state-polling/

....  Most of the April surveys in these four states were conducted among registered voters or all adults, two groups that include some people who may not vote in November.4

2 hours ago, piasan said:

The biggest problem with this is that the oldest of the polls I mentioned is May 5 and half of them have been since May 20.

1 hour ago, indydave said:

If I were to use the standard you have used in accusing me of plagiarism, I would say LIAR! (Because apparently you ACCIDENTALLY got your facts wrong. You should have KNOWN that was going to come back to bite you in the rear eventually...and it didn't take LONG.)

My citation was May 1. The polls in your Fox links were April 18-21.

 

 

 

What we have hear is a failure to  communicate  (from "Cool Hand Luke") .....

Look at the sequence of events .....  you had commented that Biden was getting beaten badly in swing states and no one was looking at it state-by-state (not shown above).  

The first listing above was me providing you with the three Fox links I had posted in April showing Biden leading Trump  AND a link to 270towin.com where multiple state-by-state analyses are available.  Included was the poll results from a number of states in the "swing state" range ..... within a +/-3% range of uncertainty.

Then you commented on the Texas 1% difference from 270towin.com.

Then you commented AGAIN on the 270towin data and addressed that with a "538" analysis of April polls with a May 1 date. 

Notice, at this point, you have TWICE referenced data from 270towin, not the Fox polls.

So, AFTER you TWICE commented on the 270towin polls, those are the ones I was commenting on being from May ..... with half of them since May 20.  (Correction .... I had earlier said 13 polls were within a +/- 3% margin of error (6% spread or less) .... one of those was the national poll at the top of the list.  There were 12 state polls within 6%.)

Then you switch from the 270towin polls you twice mentioned to the Fox polls you hadn't.

I'm not too sure the mistake was mine ....... but we definitely have a "failure to communicate."

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29 minutes ago, Blitzking said:

"one very valid question would be "how did they gain access to the cockpit"?

Perhaps the terrorists stabbed the flight attendants to get a cockpit key, to force one of them to open the cockpit door, or to lure the captain or first officer out of the cockpit." Once the hijackers gained control of American 11, they guided it toward New York's World Trade Center towers, where it stuck the North 

You and others (including Pi...famous "splitter" known for asking that side topics be taken to another thread) have had a chance to "air" your thoughts but please don't "hijack" the thread.

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https://www.wcnc.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/data-cdc-estimates-covid-19-mortality-rate

CHARLOTTE, N.C. — New data from the Centers for Disease Control is raising questions about just how deadly the coronavirus is.

The virus has had a catastrophic impact on the U.S. killing nearly 100,000 Americans.  However, a new estimate from the CDC indicates a smaller percentage of people die from the virus than previously reported. 

WCNC Charlotte is not sharing this data to minimize the major impact of the virus, but it goes to show how much is still not known.

From the very beginning, there have been questions about how coronavirus compares to the flu. In March, one of the top U.S. health officials, Dr. Anthony Fauci, said COVID-19 is far deadlier than the flu.

"The flu has a mortality of 0.1 percent, this has a mortality of 10-times that,” said Dr. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

However, new data from the CDC suggests a much lower mortality rate for COVID-19 than previously reported.   

In March, the World Health Organization reported about 3.4% of people with the virus have died based on the known cases at the time. However, the latest CDC estimate has a mortality rate of about ten times less than that.

“The experts were expecting it to be much greater,” said Vera Rivera, a local family nurse practitioner.

However, Rivera says it’s too early to draw any conclusions from the CDC data.   

The data is based on five scenarios, including the best estimate for a mortality rate, which is 0.4% overall. That’s about double the flu mortality rate of 0.2%, according to 2017 data on the CDC’s website.

“I think we should take it with a grain of salt right now,” Rivera said.

Rivera says other factors, such as social distancing and the flu vaccine, make it hard to compare the two viruses.

“We truly don't know how many people would suffer from the flu if they did not have a vaccine, so it's not a good comparison,” Rivera said.

Rivera says there won’t be accurate data about COVID-19 until more people are tested.

The new CDC data also reported about 35% of people are believed to be asymptomatic or show no symptoms for COVID 19, according to the scenario with the best estimate.

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17 hours ago, indydave said:

...and NOT BACKING DOWN. LOVE IT.

Today all he said was that it is very suspicious and he believed the family would want to get to the bottom of it. If the family is Democrat, it is not surprising they want to try to bash Trump.

He is using the death of this woman as a political football for his own selfish gain against someone he sees as an adversary.  If Scarborough was a Trump supporter, then Trump wouldn't give two turds about her.  The family doesn't want him to use her name this way;  they don't  want to get "to the bottom of it."  Does that not matter?  Scarborough was a Republican congressman from Florida....so, I doubt she was a Democrat.  But, does that really matter, e.g., would that make her death any less tragic, Indy???  I'm just extremely surprised that those who are religious or at least claim to be find this behavior totally acceptable.  I'm not a religious person, but I sure wouldn't accept this callous behavior from anyone.  

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Another update on hydroxychlorquine (HCQ) as a treatment for Covid-19 .....

From:  https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexledsom/2020/05/27/france-bans-hydroxychloroquine-to-treat-covid-19/#d50482d21aba

"The French government has banned the prescription of hydroxychloroquine to treat symptoms of Covid-19 due to serious concerns over health risks.  ...."

Looks more and more like a "go cautiously" approach was the right idea along .....

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19 minutes ago, StormanNorman said:

He is using the death of this woman as a political football for his own selfish gain against someone he sees as an adversary.  If Scarborough was a Trump supporter, then Trump wouldn't give two turds about her.  Scarborough was a Republican congressman from Florida....so, I doubt she was a Democrat.  But, does that really matter, e.g., would that make her death any less tragic, Indy???  I'm not a religious person, but I'm extremely surprised that those who are merely scoff at this behaviour.  

I'm not a religious person "

Oh you are.. You just dont use that term "religious"..

Born again Christian's arent religious.. Jesus railed against the "religious people" of his day calling them whitewashed tombs.. 

We just dont have the amount of FAITH required in order to believe in Metaphysical Naturalism.... 

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20 hours ago, indydave said:

Today all he said was that it is very suspicious and he believed the family would want to get to the bottom of it. If the family is Democrat, it is not surprising they want to try to bash Trump.

Who is making this a partisan issue?

Tell us, why is Trump so interested in this specific case after nearly 20 years?

It could be that the family is Republicans ..... Scarborough is.  

It could be that the family is satisfied they know the circumstances of her death and Trump bringing it up is causing them pain.   Frankly, it's none of Trump's business.

Her FAMILY has said this is causing them pain and has asked Trump to cease and desist.  Their political party is IRRELEVANT.  

It's time for any DECENT human being to stop.

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7 hours ago, KillurBluff said:

The virus has had a catastrophic impact on the U.S. killing nearly 100,000 Americans.

i hardly call 0.03% of the US population "catastrophic".

"irrational" would be a better word.

i consider it completely irrational to shut down an entire plant employing 800 people because of a single confirmed case.

i do however see the effectiveness of such a thing if, IF, corona was indeed as deadly as everyone made it out to be.

our country does indeed have the ability to effectively control a truly deadly epidemic.

this also proves that our people aren't exactly stupid.

if this virus killed 90% of the people it infected then our population would indeed take every precaution it could to limit the spread.

and it has the means and is able to do that.

 

killurbluff,

Quote

In March, the World Health Organization reported about 3.4% of people with the virus have died based on the known cases at the time.

i've maintained all along that the mortality rate was an average of 4% based on the figures i've seen from official sources.

Quote

However, the latest CDC estimate has a mortality rate of about ten times less than that.

the american people should DEMAND to know why many has lost their jobs and many more was made homeless because of this kind of nonsense.

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32 minutes ago, what if said:

i consider it completely irrational to shut down an entire plant employing 800 people because of a single confirmed case.

What do you want them to do when it's discovered that someone has a contagious and potentially lethal disease that is notable for its long period of contagiousness and asymptomatic presentation?  Shutting things down, cleaning everything that person touched, and figuring out who was exposed seems like exactly what you do to fight such a disease.

32 minutes ago, what if said:

i do however see the effectiveness of such a thing if, IF, corona was indeed as deadly as everyone made it out to be.

If it's effective, are you just quibbling over how many deaths are an acceptable risk?

32 minutes ago, what if said:

the american people should DEMAND to know why many has lost their jobs and many more was made homeless because of this kind of nonsense.

Do you mean like why do we have a system where people are compelled to work by the commodification of the very essentials of human life, or is this more of a "How dare you force Sport Clips to close for two months?"

If this is a relatively mild pandemic and we're seeing a completely unprecedented spike in unemployment, I don't see how that bodes very well for something you'd consider a serious disease.

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2 hours ago, popoi said:

What do you want them to do when it's discovered that someone has a contagious and potentially lethal disease that is notable for its long period of contagiousness and asymptomatic presentation?  Shutting things down, cleaning everything that person touched, and figuring out who was exposed seems like exactly what you do to fight such a disease.

 

you would be correct IF (and that's the key word here), IF this virus is the killer it's been made out to be.

the CDC (as killur posted) has admitted that the average death rate IS LESS THAN 1%, approx. 0.34%

i'm quite sure that accidents account for a higher death rate than this virus does.

it also appears as if people develop an immunity to this bug

this makes it an almost certainty that a vaccine will be developed for it, possibly before the end of the year.

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55 minutes ago, what if said:

you would be correct IF (and that's the key word here), IF this virus is the killer it's been made out to be.

I'm pretty sure I'm correct that shutting down, sanitizing, and contact tracing are the way to prevent a disease like this from spreading.  Your only contention seems to be how bad the risk would have to be to justify not making cars for a few days.  I am fairly certain that Ford have run the numbers on this and made a more informed decision than we're going to be able to here.

55 minutes ago, what if said:

the CDC (as killur posted) has admitted that the average death rate IS LESS THAN 1%, approx. 0.34%

"Attention workers, an employee has tested positive, but there is no cause for alarm, as only 2.72 of you are expected to die in the worst case. Please remain at your stations!"

55 minutes ago, what if said:

i'm quite sure that accidents account for a higher death rate than this virus does.

In 2018, the rate of fatal work injuries in manufacturing was 2.2/100,000 full time equivalent workers, or .0022%.

55 minutes ago, what if said:

it also appears as if people develop an immunity to this bug

this makes it an almost certainty that a vaccine will be developed for it, possibly before the end of the year.

That will be nice, but we have to make decisions about what to do now.  So again, what do you think should have happened in this instance? 

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